We want to be honest with our investors, always. We have been candid in recent months about the challenges of this operating environment: concessions, slower-than-expected pricing recovery, and the competitive pressure of Class A lease-up buildings in our markets. That honesty is part of what we believe makes us a credible resource for investors navigating this cycle.

Which is exactly why we want to be equally candid when the data turns in a positive direction – and right now, it is turning. Jay Parsons, the most widely followed rental housing economist in the country, published his August 20, 2026 newsletter with a headline he has not been able to write in four years: five specific, data-backed signs that U.S. apartments are gaining momentum for the first time since early 2022.

Parsons is careful with his framing – "Multifamily isn't 'back' yet, but it's trending that way" – and we think that's exactly the right way to read it. This is not a declaration of victory. It is a recognition that the direction has changed, that the change is confirmed by multiple independent data sources, and that the markets hardest hit by the supply wave are now leading the national recovery in momentum. For apartment investors who have been patient through a difficult stretch, this is a significant update.

Here is a precise breakdown of Parsons' five signs – what they say, what they mean for the broader multifamily real estate market, and what they mean specifically for our portfolio and target markets.

1) Occupancy Is Growing for the First Time in 17 Quarters – Three Providers Confirm It

The most fundamental metric in apartment investing is occupancy. When more units are filled than available, operators have pricing power. When too many units are empty, concessions follow. The story of the past four years has been an occupancy market moving in the wrong direction as the largest supply wave since the 1970s delivered hundreds of thousands of new units into a market that needed time to absorb them.

That story is now changing – confirmed independently by three data providers with different methodologies:

• ‍CoStar reported the U.S. apartment sector's first year-over-year vacancy improvement in 17 quarters – dating back to Q1 2022 (CoStar/Apartments.com press release, Q2 2026). CoStar's Grant Montgomery stated that "the national supply-demand balance has become increasingly favorable over the past year." That is not hedged language – it is a direct acknowledgment that the fundamental dynamic has shifted.‍
• RealPage data shows occupancy bottoming in December 2025 and rebounding 60 basis points so far in 2026. RealPage's Kim O'Brien specifically cited 187,000 units absorbed in Q2 as marking "one of the strongest spring and summer leasing seasons in recent years" – a demand signal that absorbed supply at a faster pace than the market expected (RealPage July 2026 U.S. Data Update).‍
• Apartment List reported vacancy improvement in each of the past five consecutive months – the first sustained positive streak since late 2021. Apartment List's economists noted the supply-demand story is "finally changing, as we see multifamily occupancy also hitting an inflection point in tandem with rent growth" (Apartment List Research, August 2026).

Three independent providers. Three different sample sets. Three different methodologies. All reporting the same directional shift. This is not a methodology artifact – it is a market reality.

As Parsons frames the simple economics behind it: "New completions are thinning down, and now demand is outpacing supply again – allowing occupancy rates to move upward." The mechanism is exactly what we have been describing for months: supply falling while demand holds. The occupancy data confirms that mechanism is now producing real results.

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Investor takeaway: Occupancy improvement is the gating variable for everything else in apartment investing – rent growth, concession burn-off, NOI recovery. The fact that three independent data providers are all confirming a sustained positive trend means the prerequisite conditions for the broader recovery are now in place. This is the first real step in the return to pricing power.

In simple terms: After four years of apartments getting emptier as too many new buildings opened at once, the trend has reversed. Three different tracking services all independently confirmed: more apartments are getting filled than going empty, for the first time since early 2022. That's the foundation of everything that comes next – when apartments are full, landlords don't have to give them away to attract residents.

2) CoStar Just Raised Its 2026 Rent Forecast Nearly Fourfold – And July Confirmed It

Rent forecast revisions are one of the clearest signals of how institutional data providers are reading the trajectory of the market. When CoStar raises its full-year forecast by a factor of nearly four – from +0.5% to +1.9% – it is saying that the evidence accumulated through mid-2026 has changed the picture materially from what was expected at the start of the year.

CoStar's forecast upgrade cited "significant progress made in the first half of the year in absorbing the excess inventory" (CoStar/Apartments.com rent growth forecast update, August 2026). That absorption progress is the direct consequence of the supply-demand shift we've been tracking: deliveries declining for six consecutive quarters, demand holding above pre-COVID historical norms, and vacancy beginning to clear.

The July 2026 data validated the forecast upgrade in real time:

• ‍RealPage reported positive year-over-year effective rent growth in July 2026 – the first time that has occurred in 12 months. That is a landmark: 12 months of year-over-year rent declines ended with a positive reading in July (RealPage July 2026 U.S. Data Update).‍
• Yardi confirmed July's nominal month-over-month rent increase was the largest July increase since 2015 – outside the exceptional post-pandemic boom years. Yardi's description: rents "continued to rebound in July" (Yardi Matrix National Multifamily Report, July 2026; Multifamily Dive, August 7, 2026).‍
• RealPage also reported that rent concessions – which we have discussed candidly in recent newsletters – have eased in back-to-back months from 15-year highs. The direction of travel on concessions has shifted, even if the absolute level remains elevated.

The interplay between the forecast upgrade and the July data creates a compounding positive signal: a major data provider raised its forecast, and the very next month of actual data confirmed the upgrade was justified. That is meaningful convergence.

For context: a 1.9% effective rent growth forecast for 2026 does not represent a boom. It represents normalization – a return toward the 2-3% rent growth that characterized the pre-pandemic healthy market of 2017-2019. That is the target, and the data says we are approaching it.

Investor takeaway: CoStar's forecast upgrade is not based on hope – it is based on the observed absorption data and the declining supply pipeline. When the most comprehensive commercial real estate data provider in the world raises its forecast nearly fourfold in a single update, it reflects genuine and material evidence of change. The rent recovery is no longer a projection – it is beginning to show up in the actual numbers.

In simple terms: The most respected apartment market research firm in the country just raised its rent growth prediction for 2026 from barely positive to nearly 2%. That's not a small adjustment – it's a signal that conditions have improved significantly from what was expected. And the July rent numbers backed it up: rents grew year-over-year for the first time in a year, and by the largest monthly amount since 2015 for that time of year. The data is catching up to the thesis.

3) Austin Leads the Nation in Rent Momentum – And It Tells Us Something Important

Austin, Texas is the market that best illustrates both the severity of the supply wave and the power of demand holding through it. Austin's apartment base expanded faster than virtually any other major metro this decade. Rents fell sharply as a result. At their worst, Austin rents were down 7.5% year-over-year as of March 2026 – one of the steepest declines of any major market in the country.

Five months later, that decline has narrowed to 2.8% year-over-year in July – a 480-basis-point improvement that Parsons documents as the biggest momentum swing among major U.S. markets over that period (RealPage; Jay Parsons, August 20, 2026). Rents in Austin are still negative year-over-year. But 2.8% is Austin's smallest year-over-year decline in 38 months – and the direction is clearly and rapidly improving.

Parsons uses the Austin data to make a methodological point that we think every investor should understand: "Anyone can wait until it's sunny to declare, 'it's daytime!' But it's more useful to point out when the sun is starting to rise or set." The second derivative matters as much as the first. Rents in Austin aren't up yet, but the rate of decline is compressing rapidly. That compression is what tells you the bottom is approaching and the recovery is imminent.

Why does Austin's momentum matter beyond Austin? Because Parsons identifies it as a leading indicator for larger Sun Belt markets: "Smaller markets like these tend to be more volatile, and volatility swings both ways. And the latest upward swing may be a leading indicator for what happens in larger Sun Belt / Mountains markets as supply drops off." The markets that absorbed the most supply earliest will recover earliest – and when they recover, the larger markets with similar supply dynamics follow. Dallas, Houston, Tampa, and Atlanta are in that sequence.

Investor takeaway: Austin's momentum is important not because we invest there, but because it demonstrates the mechanism that is working in our markets too: demand held strong through the supply wave, and as supply eases, fundamentals recover. That sequence is playing out faster in Austin than in larger markets – but it is the same sequence. Our markets are next in line.

In simple terms: Austin was one of the worst-hit cities in the country – rents were falling 7.5% a year as recently as March. Five months later, the decline has shrunk to 2.8% – the smallest rent cut Austin has seen in over three years. Rents aren't up yet, but they're falling a lot less. Jay Parsons says smaller hard-hit markets like Austin tend to lead the recovery, and the larger markets follow. That puts our markets – Atlanta, Tampa, and our Texas targets – in a promising sequence.

4) Charleston Cracks the National Top 20 – Our Market Is Leading the Recovery

This is the data point that matters most directly for our current portfolio – and it deserves to be stated clearly.

Jay Parsons specifically named Charleston, South Carolina as one of four previously hard-hit markets that cracked the Top 20 nationally for apartment rent growth – with rents now up more than 3% year-over-year (Jay Parsons, August 20, 2026). The other three markets named alongside Charleston – Boise, Wilmington, and Reno – all share the same profile: markets that absorbed significant new supply, saw rents fall as a result, and are now recovering as that supply is absorbed and new starts have collapsed.

Charleston's recovery is not accidental. It is the mechanical outcome of conditions we identified and underwrote for:

• ‍Supply collapsed. New multifamily construction starts in Charleston are down 72% from peak (MMG Real Estate Advisors 2025 Charleston Forecast). With almost no new competition arriving, the excess supply that drove concessions is being absorbed without replacement.‍
• Demand accelerated. Google's $9 billion data center investment for 2026-2027 is the largest single corporate capital commitment in South Carolina's history (Charleston Regional Development Alliance). It is bringing high-wage professional renters into a market that simultaneously has very limited new housing supply – a demand-supply combination that produces pricing power quickly.‍
• The employment base kept diversifying. Boeing, Eaton, defense manufacturers, and a growing technology sector continue to bring the kind of middle-income workforce renter that fills Class B communities and stays (HereCharleston; CRDA).

Parsons also noted that West Palm Beach is close to joining the top-20 leaderboard with rents up 2.4% year-over-year – a 41-month high. And he noted that the pattern in these secondary markets is a leading indicator for what happens in larger markets as supply drops off. Charleston is not a fluke – it is a preview.

For investors who have been patient through the concession pressure of the past 12 months, the Charleston data is a direct and concrete confirmation that the strategy is working. We bought below replacement cost in a market with constrained supply and strong employment-driven demand. The result is now showing up in the national rent growth data.

Investor takeaway: Charleston's entry into the national top 20 for rent growth is not a market event that happened to us – it is the direct outcome of the investment thesis we have been executing. Below-replacement-cost acquisitions, livability upgrades, renewal-centric operations, in a market with collapsing supply and accelerating demand. The data is now confirming what the underwriting projected.

In simple terms: One of the cities where we own apartments – Charleston, South Carolina – just cracked the national top 20 for rent growth, with rents up more than 3% a year. That's a direct win for our investors. It happened because we invested in a market where almost no new apartments are being built, while a wave of new, high-paying jobs from Google and other employers keeps arriving. Less competition, more demand: that combination produces exactly the result we're seeing.

5) Tampa, Dallas, and Houston Are All Moving in the Right Direction

The fifth sign Parsons documents is that the momentum is not limited to the leaders – it is spreading through the Sun Belt in a pattern consistent with the recovery thesis we have been tracking all year.

Specifically, Parsons documents:

• ‍Tampa is one of the markets showing a 220-280 basis point upward swing in year-over-year effective rent change since March – joining Denver and Phoenix as larger Sun Belt markets where the depth of rent cuts is moderating substantially. Tampa was included in Jay Parsons' July analysis as a Top 10 market for vacancy improvement momentum (Jay Parsons, July 9, 2026). That vacancy momentum is now translating into rent momentum – the sequencing we projected.‍
• Dallas and Houston have both seen upward swings of 100+ basis points in year-over-year rent change since March. Parsons specifically names both as markets where "the depth of rent cuts have moderated" – a precise and meaningful characterization. Cuts are still happening in some submarkets, but the market is healing, and our underwriting for Texas entry is being validated by the trajectory.‍
• Fort Lauderdale and Jacksonville are approaching positive rent growth territory (Fort Lauderdale at 0.0%, Jacksonville at -0.1%) – providing a near-term preview of what markets like Tampa, Dallas, and Houston should reach as supply continues to thin.‍
• Raleigh/Durham, Orlando, Miami, and San Antonio have all seen upward swings of 100+ basis points as well – confirming that the recovery is broad across the Sun Belt, not limited to the earliest-recovering markets.

Parsons' observation about the pattern is important for investors thinking about timing: "Falling rents were never about weak demand, just high supply. Now supply is down, and demand still strong. So rents are up." That is the entire thesis in one sentence. The supply wave created the problem. The supply normalization is solving it. Demand never left. This is not a complicated story – and the data is now confirming it chapter by chapter.

Investor takeaway: The recovery is not limited to one or two outlier markets – it is a broad-based Sun Belt trend encompassing our current markets (Atlanta, Tampa, Charleston) and our target markets (Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston). The sequencing is playing out as the supply data predicted, and the momentum in our specific markets is consistent with what Parsons is documenting nationally.

In simple terms: It's not just Charleston. Tampa – another city where we own apartments – is also seeing meaningful improvement. And the Texas cities we're targeting next – Dallas and Houston – are both seeing rent cuts moderate. The pattern is spreading: as fewer new apartments arrive, the ones that already exist fill up, concessions shrink, and rents recover. We're seeing this play out in real time across all the markets we care about.

6) Can the Momentum Be Sustained? Parsons' Honest Assessment – and Ours

Jay Parsons closes his August 20 analysis by asking the right question directly: "Momentum is real, but can it be sustained?" He presents both sides, and so will we.

The headwinds are real. Parsons identifies them clearly: choppy job growth, challenges for young adults finding employment (with more living with parents), re-accelerating inflation, and low consumer confidence. These are not minor background risks – they are active forces that could slow or interrupt the recovery if they intensify. As we've discussed in previous newsletters, the demand side of this thesis has held better than expected, but macro deterioration remains a genuine risk.

The tailwinds are also real – and strengthening. Parsons identifies significantly improved rent affordability for Class A/B renters (rent-to-income ratios back to pre-pandemic levels), significantly reduced supply pressures, better-than-expected absorption, and a large ongoing discount to own vs. rent. He also cites Newmark's latest capital markets report finding that 2026 is on track to be the second-biggest year ever for apartment debt originations – a signal that lenders see a recovered market ahead, not further distress.

Parsons' bottom line is precise and honest: "We don't know what the future holds. But we do know supply – not demand – has been the biggest headwind for apartments these past four years. And supply is going down. So barring a material economic slowdown, there's a case to be made that the apartment outlook looks bright." We agree with that framing entirely.

For our portfolio specifically: we are not managing to a best-case scenario. We are managing to a realistic scenario where supply normalization drives gradual improvement in occupancy, concession burn-off drives effective rent recovery, and our renewal-first operating philosophy captures that improvement before it appears in asking rents. That approach works in the scenario Parsons describes – and it is also resilient if the headwinds prove stronger than expected, because our below-replacement-cost basis, conservative leverage, and operational discipline provide genuine downside protection.

Investor takeaway: The question of sustainability is the right question to ask – and the honest answer is that the tailwinds are strengthening while the headwinds, while real, have not derailed the absorption trend so far. The supply story is not uncertain – supply is falling, starts are at multi-year lows, and the pipeline is shrinking. The demand story has held. The combination of those two facts, sustained over the past several months, is what Parsons is documenting – and it is the foundation of the recovery we are operating toward.

In simple terms: Parsons is honest about the risks: the economy is uncertain, some people are struggling to find jobs, and inflation is still running hot. Those things could slow the recovery. But the single biggest factor working against apartments for the past four years – too many new buildings – is clearly getting better. Fewer new apartments are being built. The ones that exist are filling up. And rent affordability for middle-income renters has actually improved. That combination makes a good case for continued progress, even if the path isn't perfectly straight.

7) What This Means for Our Portfolio and Our Next Moves

The August 20 Parsons analysis is the most positive piece of third-party market research we have been able to share since we began producing this newsletter. We want to be clear about what it means – and what it doesn't mean – for how we are operating.

What it means: The thesis is confirmed. The strategy is working. Charleston's top-20 rent growth performance is direct evidence that below-replacement-cost acquisitions in supply-constrained markets with strong employment-driven demand produce the outcomes we underwrote. Tampa's improving momentum validates our occupancy-protection-first operating philosophy through the difficult period. And the direction in Dallas and Houston validates our timing for expansion into those markets.

What it doesn't mean: The challenge is over. Concessions are still present in some of our communities. The recovery is gradual, not sudden. We are not declaring victory any more than Parsons is. We are acknowledging that the direction has clearly changed and that the evidence is now convergent enough to say so with confidence.

What we're doing about it: We are continuing to execute the same playbook that has produced Charleston's top-20 performance: livability upgrades that support sustainable rent premiums, renewal-first operations that minimize concession exposure, and conservative financial structures that keep us positioned to hold through the remainder of the recovery and sell from strength rather than necessity. We are also actively accelerating our evaluation of Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston entry points, with the conviction that the improving fundamentals in those markets make this the right window.

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Investor takeaway: The data has turned. The market is gaining momentum for the first time in four years. Our portfolio is positioned to capture that momentum – in Charleston, which is already leading nationally, and in Tampa, Atlanta, and our Texas targets, where the same supply-normalization mechanism is progressing on a slightly lagged timeline. This is what we have been operating toward – and the evidence says we are there.

In simple terms: The research we've been citing all year has now turned definitively positive – and our own markets are among the leading evidence. Charleston is in the national top 20 for rent growth. Tampa is improving. Dallas and Houston are on the same path, just a few months behind. We're not done navigating a challenging period, but the data is clearly moving in our favor. We are staying disciplined, continuing to execute our strategy, and getting ready to expand into Texas as the recovery extends into those markets.

8) What We're Watching Next

• ‍Monthly data from CoStar, RealPage, Yardi, and Apartment List: With all four providers now reporting improving momentum, we watch for sustained upward movement in August and September – the back half of the leasing season that MAA and Camden both projected would be stronger than recent years. Consistency across multiple months and multiple providers is the confirmation that the trend is durable, not seasonal.‍
• Charleston rent and vacancy tracking: With Charleston in the national top 20 for rent growth, we monitor our specific submarket data monthly to ensure the portfolio is capturing the market-level improvement. We track signed new leases, renewal rates, and concession usage at the property level weekly.‍
• Tampa momentum: Tampa's 220-280 basis point upward swing is encouraging but still in negative year-over-year territory. We watch Apartment List's monthly vacancy data and RealPage's effective rent figures for Tampa specifically as the indicators of how quickly the market is tightening from here.‍
• Dallas and Houston trajectory: Both markets showed 100+ basis point upward swings per Parsons. As we evaluate entry timing in Texas, we track the pace of concession normalization, new delivery volumes, and absorption data in specific Dallas and Houston submarkets monthly.‍
• Newmark's apartment debt originations data: Parsons cited Newmark's finding that 2026 is on track for the second-biggest year ever in apartment debt originations. Rising debt origination confirms that lenders see a recovering market and are extending credit to match. This is a capital markets signal that complements the operating data – and it matters for our financing options in Texas.

Our 2026 Playbook

• ‍Current markets: Atlanta, Tampa, and Charleston – all confirmed by Parsons' August 20 analysis as markets either leading (Charleston: top 20 nationally) or showing meaningful improving momentum (Tampa: 220-280 bps upward swing) in the national recovery.‍
• Target expansion markets: Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston – both showing 100+ basis point upward swings in year-over-year rent change per Parsons. The supply normalization mechanism is working in these markets and the trajectory supports our entry thesis.‍
• Acquisition edge: Below replacement cost with day-one or near-term cash flow. Charleston's top-20 rent growth performance is the most direct evidence available that below-replacement-cost acquisitions in supply-constrained, employment-driven markets produce the outcomes we underwrite.‍
• Value creation: Livability-first capex: kitchens, LVP flooring, lighting, bath refresh, smart access, pet amenities, package rooms, safety lighting, and landscaping – improvements that support sustainable rent premiums in a recovering market.‍
• Operations: Renewal-centric mindset, responsive maintenance, transparent fees, and disciplined pricing. As concessions continue to normalize, the communities with the highest renewal rates will capture the most effective rent improvement.‍
• Capital structure: Conservative leverage, assumption-first where it makes sense, and multiple exit paths (hold/refi/sell) based on data – not headlines.

The Bottom Line

Jay Parsons – the most trusted name in apartment market research – just published five specific, data-backed signs that the apartment market is gaining momentum for the first time in four years. Vacancy is falling for the first time in 17 quarters, confirmed independently by three different tracking services. CoStar raised its rent forecast for 2026 nearly fourfold. Austin – the hardest-hit large market in the country – has improved its rent performance by nearly 5 percentage points since March. And Charleston, South Carolina – one of the cities where we own apartments – just cracked the national top 20 for rent growth with rents up over 3%. Tampa, one of our other current markets, is showing 220-280 basis point improvement as well, and our Texas target markets are also trending upward. Parsons is careful about this: the market isn't fully recovered, risks remain, and the progress is gradual. But the direction has clearly and measurably changed – and our specific markets are among the leading evidence. That is what we have been operating toward, and the data is confirming we are on the right path.

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